There's been a lot of muttering since the Iran war kicked off about the supplies of jet fuel in Europe, and in particular if airlines and airports are going to have enough to run full schedules this summer.

In short, from what I've seen I think there will be very few issues (at least in airlines that are well-run).

Now, I did a degree in Aviation at Uni, so I am fairly well versed in all of this. I'm also passionate about the aviation industry in general, so if I nerd out a bit here I apologise, but I'll try and keep it all understandable and in plain words (no pun intended with plain there)

1) The Straight of Hormuz is Not the Global Total Supply

A lot of news articles seem to hint that supply issues stem from the fact that the Straight of Hormuz is closed / has been closed / keeps getting closed, and a lot of oil supply usually passes through there.

A lot does, but it's actually only 20% (i.e. 1/5th) of the worlds total supply of oil. That is a lot for sure, but if someone takes away 1/5th of your birthday cake, you don't panic about having birthday cake supply issues, you just have 80% of your cake. Still not bad.

Now, whilst actually closer to 40% (i.e. 2/5ths) of Europe's supply was supposedly coming through Hormuz, many providers have either stepped up production to address the lack of supply (i.e. Repsol in Spain) or alternate supplies have been secured ("West Africa, the Americas and Norway")

Ryanair CEO Micheal O'Leary has confirmed that Ryanair's suppliers have said there will be no issues right the way out to July, and given how quickly things are changing, there shouldn't be any issues even past that

2) What About Prices?

This is where it might change a bit more per airline.

Airlines don't just buy fuel at the pump. Lots of them do what's called 'fuel hedging' - where they basically agree to buy a certain amount of oil for a locked in price. Bit like a frozen mortgage, in that even if the general interest rates change, you pay what you agreed.

However, prices will probably change per airlines own hedging agreements. As far as I can gather, here's the craic with the main ones:

Ryanair

Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel at $67 a barrel up to March 2027, taking it right through this summer season. They, metaphorically and probably physically, are absolutely laughing right now, as they're paying $67 a barrel for 80% of their fuel in a market where the price of jet fuel is currently trading at over $150 a barrel for jet fuel

Therefore, Ryanair predict at most single digit ticket price rises, but that should be the extent of it, since they are very well positioned to ride out this volaitlity

Easyjet

Easyjet also do have fuel hedges, but they are less than Ryanair's in terms of volume and seem to be more expensive per barrel. It looks like easyjet have hedged 70% hedged at $706 per metric tonne (as far as I can figure, this is about $89 a barrel), and it only lasts until 30th September this year. As a result, Easyjet have been talking about price increases towards the back end of summer (although again, supply in general shouldn't be an issue). Looks like they have some hedged for after September, but it's only around 50% of their requirements

Jet2

Jet2 have a similar hedge price for summer 2026 at $89 a barrel, but they have 87% of it hedged compared to easyjets 70%. Jet2 is also therefore also very well positioned and I can't see their prices shifting much either

International Airlines Group (IAG - i.e. Aer Lingus, BA, Vueling)

IAG have one of the weaker hedge positions, with only an average of about 54% in the second half of this year, so I'd expect flight schedule readjustments on fuel cost reasons and / or higher ticket prices here.

Then again, from my Shoestring Travel Club point of view, there are almost never any short haul IAG-operated flights from the UK or Ireland apart from Vueling. So keep an eye on them

TUI

Another one that I don't really ever find with good enough flights from the UK or Ireland for a Shoestring-style trip, but they appear to be fairly well protected with about 83% hedged this summer and about 62% in winter, so I wouldn't expect too much difference here from the usual.

Wizz Air

The final airline of probable relevance to what I look at for Shoestring. Wizz appears to be well covered for some of summer at 70% hedged at about $88 a barrel, but their full year position is only 57% hedged, suggesting they're not as heavily secured for later summer and / or winter.

Saying that, I don't regularly find flights by Wizz for a Shoestring trip, so with any luck you're not too reliant on them either.

TLDR (Too Long, Didn't Read) / Summary

Basically, I think summer should be grand. The fuel supply shouldn't dry up even if the Straight of Hormuz remains closed because it only makes up 20% of the worlds oil supply, and additional supplies have been found and mostly secured from elsewhere anyways. Airlines such as IAG-owned Aer Lingus and Vueling and potentially Wizz that are less heavily hedged on fuel (i.e. have pre-bought less at pre-war levels) might struggle a bit over summer and adjust schedules on fuel-price reasons, but airlines that are well positioned and heavily hedged with fuel at pre-war prices (notably Jet2 and Ryanair) should be able to operate with full schedules and relatively similar ticket prices (if they are raised, hopefully only by single digit prices).

Bear in mind this is just my take so I could be completely wrong, so please don't take it as gospel. But I at least will be looking for trips and booking in summer as per usual despite all this stuff going on.

Sources if you want to have a read for yourself:

Ryanair Release 18th May '26 Jet2 Fuel Announcement 20th May '26 Easyjet trading update 16th April '26 Article ranking airline fuel positions

News article with collection of statements made by airlines

News article on fuel supply this summer Interview with Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary 18th May '26 Global weekly jet fuel price per region